One of the Blob Experts, Rick Thoman from the National Weather Service Alaska Region, shares this sneak preview on the persistence of the Blob into 2016:
“Many have declared the “blob” dead or dying, but this does not look like a blob on it’s last legs to me. The anomalies are very similar to last year in the NE Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. In fact, north of 30N this, this looks to project on the NPM mode (the “Blob”) better than the PDO.
Significantly warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) continue across the NE Pacific and Gulf of Alaska (and as stated, are very similar to last year at this time). The big difference from last autumn is in the deep tropics, with a full blown El Niño well underway.
The climate models forecast this pattern to persist. It does not look so “Blobby” now because much of the Pacific is warm, as opposed to a bulls-eye of warmth from 2013-14. Furthermore, the warmth is centered farther east, like in 2014-15.”
The NPM index (from the ERSSTv4) for October is +1.96, up from +1.76 in September and the highest October value since 1936 (Reference: Richard James).
The following is the SST October anomaly image from CPC.
The next image is the current CFS forecast for November 2015-January 2016