Record North Pacific Warmth

In my last update way back in February, I highlighted a long-range NMME forecast suggesting that extraordinary warmth would develop by summer across much of the North Pacific Ocean.  Here’s the sea surface temperature (SST) forecast that caught my attention at the time: The forecast turned out to be fairly good, with the verification map (below) showing some distinct similarities to the forecast – particularly … Continue reading Record North Pacific Warmth

North Pacific Forecast

The past six months have been rather quiet for “blob watchers”, as the North Pacific temperature patterns have been mixed and variable.  The North Pacific Mode has been oscillating between negative and positive phases with some regularity, and the PDO did the same thing for the second half of 2017 before turning modestly positive so far this year.  It’s a bit unusual to have a … Continue reading North Pacific Forecast

Atmospheric Connection to the Blob

Last week a paper by Yu-Chiao Liang and co-authors was published in the Journal of Climate discussing the connection between North Pacific “blob” warming and atmospheric flow patterns spanning the North American continent from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic.  Among other interesting results, the authors showed that variations in sea surface temperatures in the “blob” region of the northeastern Pacific are rather closely … Continue reading Atmospheric Connection to the Blob

The Blob in Hibernation

It’s been about five months now since the North Pacific Mode, a useful measure of the “Blob” spatial pattern, turned negative.  Cooler than normal sea surface temperatures across the northern North Pacific (but south of the Bering Sea) kept the NPM in the negative phase all winter, and the December-February average of the NPM index was the lowest since 2000-2001. Here’s a recent weekly SST … Continue reading The Blob in Hibernation

Could the high sea surface temperatures experienced during the recent “Blob” event of the past few years become a view into the future?

This week is the Alaska Marine Science Symposium. Many talks referred to the “Blob” and it’s aftermath. Yereth Rosen of ADN wrote this story on a Keynote address by Nick Bond, who gave an overview of the Blob and what we have learned about its impact, providing some clues to what a future warmer ocean may mean. Continue reading Could the high sea surface temperatures experienced during the recent “Blob” event of the past few years become a view into the future?

Glacier Bay Monitoring Program reveals possible Blob related temperature effects later than other areas in the Gulf of Alaska

“…..Glacier Bay didn’t strongly “feel” The Blob in the first couple summers after its onset (2014-2015). But last year’s El Nino seems to have exacerbated ocean warming, and at least in the main lower trunk of Glacier Bay mid-summer water temperatures have been significantly warmer in 2016.” For more on this story, visit NPS Glacier Bay. Continue reading Glacier Bay Monitoring Program reveals possible Blob related temperature effects later than other areas in the Gulf of Alaska